And so once again it is Oscar season. That time of the year when Hollywood dresses up at its most glamorous and celebrates the art of cinema. How much people plan to celebrate is questionable. People are very upset that the awards for the technical categories and short films will be given out before the ceremony. ABC threatened to cancel the entire telecast if its notoroiously long running time wasn’t shortened and ratings continue to be abysmal while things have sort of gone back to the pre-pandemic phenomenon of kids flocking to see superhero movies and adults staying home and streaming stuff.
Oh well, I still love the movies and I still love the Oscars. Every year I offer my choices, predictions, and opinions about what films and artists were overlooked. I don’t have a crystal ball and in recent years I’ve been pretty off about some of the winners but hey, this is, despite what “experts” say, an unpredictable game.
I wanted to wait until I saw all of the Best Picture nominees before I wrote this blog entry. I haven’t seen all of the nominated movies, of course, and as is so often the case I haven’t seen any of the short subjects or documentaries, a problem I really should remedee. Regardless, here are my thoughts.
- Belfast – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
- CODA – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
- Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
- Drive My Car – Teruhisa Yamamoto
- Dune – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
- King Richard – Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
- Licorice Pizza – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
- Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
- The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
- West Side Story – Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger
MY CHOICE: I’ll be honest, I didn’t think this was a particularly strong year for movies and none of my favorites were nominated for Best Picture. I would say that for me it’s a horse race between Belfast and West Side Story and I think I’m gonna go with the Jets and the Sharks on this one.
WHAT WILL WIN: The Power of the Dog is leading the pack, having won the Golden Globe for Drama, the BAFTA Award and the Critics Choice Award. Who knows? There may be an upset, but I think it has the best chance.
OVERLOOKED: Tick…Tick…BOOM! Hands down the best film of the year IMO.
- Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
- Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
- Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
- Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
MY CHOICE: I’d like to see Kenneth Branagh win this one.
WHO WILL WIN: The Best Director and Best Picture Awards are starting to go together again. I think Jane Campion will win.
OVERLOOKED: Jon M. Chu for In the Heights.
- Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos as Desi Arnaz
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog as Phil Burbank
- Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom! as Jonathan Larson
- Will Smith – King Richard as Richard Williams
- Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth as Lord Macbeth
MY CHOICE: Andrew Garfield as the late Jonathan Larson in Tick, Tick…Boom!
WHO WILL WIN: I hate to say it, because I didn’t like the movie and I didn’t like his character, but it looks like Will Smith will win for King Richard. Blech.
OVERLOOKED: Remember when kids actually got nominated? Why hasn’t the wonderful Jude Hill been nominated for Belfast? Is the ghost of W.C. Fields on the nominating committee?
- Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye as Tammy Faye Bakker
- Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter as Leda Caruso
- Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers as Janis Martínez Moreno
- Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos as Lucille Ball
- Kristen Stewart – Spencer as Diana, Princess of Wales
MY CHOICE: Nichole Kidman channeled her inner Lucy. She didn’t just do an impression of her but gave us an idea what this first lady of comedy was like behind the scenes – tough, sardonic, and fearless.
WHO WILL WIN: The smart money is on Jessica Chastain but I’m in a gambling mood. I think Olivia Colman might get it.
OVERLOOKED: Jodie Comer for her harrowing performance in The Last Duel. No doubt about it, she’s one to watch.
- Ciarán Hinds – Belfast as Pop
- Troy Kotsur – CODA as Frank Rossi
- Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog as George Burbank
- J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos as William Frawley
- Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog as Peter Gordon
MY CHOICE: I think I’ll go with Kodi Smit-McPhee on this one.
WHO WILL WIN: Troy Kotsur is the front runner and he will be only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar which will mean a lot to ultra woke Hollywood.*
OVERLOOKED: Mike Faist for his dynamic performance as Riff in West Side Story.
- Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter as Young Leda Caruso
- Ariana DeBose – West Side Story as Anita
- Judi Dench – Belfast as Granny
- Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog as Rose Gordon
- Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard as Oracene “Brandy” Price
MY CHOICE: Ariana DeBose for her electrifying portrayal of Anita in WSS.
WHO WILL WIN: She’s won just about every award so far. Pretty sure she’s gonna win this one too.
OVERLOOKED: At the risk of evoking moans of “not her again,” the divine Meryl Streep was really funny as the president in Don’t Look Up.
- Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
- Don’t Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
- King Richard – Zach Baylin
- Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
- The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
MY CHOICE: Don’t Look Up.
WHAT WILL WIN: Belfast.
OVERLOOKED: Paralell Mothers.
- CODA – Sian Heder; based on the original motion picture screenplay La Famille Bélier written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau
- Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe; based on the short story by Haruki Murakami
- Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth; based on the novel by Frank Herbert
- The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal; based on the novel by Elena Ferrante
- The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion; based on the novel by Thomas Savage
MY CHOICE: CODA.
WHAT WILL WIN: The Power of the Dog.
OVERLOOKED: The Last Duel.
- Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
- Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- Luca – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
- Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
MY CHOICE: For what might be the first time in years, I haven’t seen any animated films this year. Pass.
WHAT WILL WIN: I think Disney’s Enacto has it pretty well sewn up.
Best International Feature Film
- Drive My Car (Japan) in Japanese – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- Flee (Denmark) in Danish – directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen
- The Hand of God (Italy) in Italian – directed by Paolo Sorrentino
- Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan) in Dzongkha – directed by Pawo Choyning Dorji
- The Worst Person in the World (Norway) in Norwegian – directed by Joachim Trier
MY CHOICE: I’ve only seen Drive My Car and The Worst Person in the World. I wasn’t crazy about either of them but if I had to choose I’d pick the entry from Norway.
WHAT WILL WIN: Drive My Car.
OVERLOOKED: Why Paralell Mothers, Pedro Almodovar’s best film in years isn’t nominated I swear I don’t know.
- Ascension – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
- Attica – Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
- Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
- Writing with Fire – Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
MY CHOICE: I’m ashamed to say I haven’t seen any of them. I must pass.
WHAT WILL WIN: Summer of Soul sounds like good Oscar bait.
Best Documentary Short Subject
- Audible – Matthew Ogens and Geoff McLean
- Lead Me Home – Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
- The Queen of Basketball – Ben Proudfoot
- Three Songs for Benazir – Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
- When We Were Bullies – Jay Rosenblatt
MY CHOICE: N/A
WHO WILL WIN: N/A
- Ala Kachuu – Take and Run – Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
- The Dress – Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
- The Long Goodbye – Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
- On My Mind – Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
- Please Hold – K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
MY CHOICE: N/A
WHO WILL WIN: N/A
- Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
- Bestia – Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
- BoxBallet – Anton Dyako
- Robin Robin – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
- The Windshield Wiper – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
MY CHOICE: N/A
WHAT WILL WIN: N/A
- Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
- Dune – Hans Zimmer
- Encanto – Germaine Franco
- Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
- The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood
MY CHOICE: Don’t Look Up.
WHAT WILL WIN: Dune.
- “Be Alive” from King Richard – Music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
- “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto – Music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “Down to Joy” from Belfast – Music and lyrics by Van Morrison
- “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
- “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
MY CHOICE: “Down to Joy” from Belfast.
WHAT WILL WIN: “Dos Oruguitas” from Enacto. Won’t it be nice to see Lin-Manuel Miranda win something for once?
- Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
- Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphilland Ron Bartlett
- No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
- The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
- West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
MY CHOICE: West Side Story.
WHAT WILL WIN: Dune.
- Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
- Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
- The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
- West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
MY CHOICE: The Tragedy of Macbeth.
WHAT WILL WIN: West Side Story.
- Dune – Greig Fraser
- Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
- The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
- The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
- West Side Story – Janusz Kamiński
MY CHOICE: Nightmare Alley.
WHAT WILL WIN: Dune.
- Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
- Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
- Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
- The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
- House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
MY CHOICE: The House of Gucci.
WHAT WILL WIN: Cruella.
- Cruella – Jenny Beavan
- Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
- Dune – Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan
- Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
- West Side Story – Paul Tazewell
MY CHOICE: West Side Story.
WHAT WILL WIN: Duel.
OVERLOOKED: House of Gucci.
- Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin
- Dune – Joe Walker
- King Richard – Pamela Martin
- The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras
- Tick, Tick… Boom! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
MY CHOICE: Tick, Tick…Boom!
WHAT WILL WIN: Dune
OVERLOOKED: In the Heights.
- Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
- Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
- No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawknerand Chris Corbould
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
- Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
MY CHOICE: I’ve only seen Dune. I’d say it wins by default.
WHAT WILL WIN: Dune.
*In an earlier version of this blog entry I eroniously stated that Troy Kotsur will make history as the first deaf person awarded an Oscar should he win. I was wrong about that. Marlee Matlin holds that honor, winning the award in 1987 for Children of a Lesser God.
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