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February 2024

MY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – 2024

Well, my friends, another Oscar season is upon us.  This was certainly an interesting, and pivotal year in movie history.  Not only are more people returning to their multiplexes but people are also finally starting to break away from super hero movies and formulaic franchises and embracing different kinds of movies, be they quirky, off-beat comedies like Barbie (admittedly a franchise in the making, but a very subversive one) or more serious films like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon.  While I’m thrilled that people are returning to theaters and embracing different kinds of movies, I can’t help but personally feel a little underwhelmed because while I credit all three of the before mentioned films for breaking the mold and doing something different and original, I just didn’t think any of them were great films, just good ones.  This is just my opinion, of course, but I can’t help but feel disappointed in this year’s output.

Regardless, the show must go on and the Oscars will take place on March 10th.  So here’s what I’m rooting for, what I think will win and what I think was overlooked:

BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

AMERICAN FICTION:Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers

ANATOMY OF A FALL: Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers

BARBIE: David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers

THE HOLDOVERS: Mark Johnson, Producer

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers

MAESTRO: Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers

OPPENHEIMER: Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers

PAST LIVES: David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers

POOR THINGS: Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers

THE ZONE OF INTEREST: James Wilson, Producer

MY CHOICE:  Poor Things was a wonderfully weird and original take on the Frankenstein legend, by way of Peter Greenway.  Off-beat, surreal and often hilarious, it gets my vote.

WHAT WILL WIN:  All signs lead to an Oppenheimer fest.  Pretty sure that’s what will win.

OVERLOOKED:  I know it was silly but I loved Cocaine Bear.

DIRECTING NOMINEES:

ANATOMY OF A FALL: Justine Triet

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Martin Scorsese

OPPENHEIMER: Christopher Nolan

POOR THINGS: Yorgos Lanthimos

THE ZONE OF INTEREST: Jonathan Glazer

MY CHOICE:  Movies don’t direct themselves so I usually think whatever gets Best Picture should also get Best Director.  This year is no exception.  Let’s go Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things.

WHO WILL WIN:  Some voters might want to see Martin Scorsese, now in his eighties, win a second Oscar in his lifetime, but I think Christopher Nolan has the upper hand and then some on this one.

OVERLOOKED:  Cord Jefferson for American Fiction.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE NOMINEES:

BRADLEY COOPER: Maestro

COLMAN DOMINGO: Rustin

PAUL GIAMATTI: The Holdovers

CILLIAN MURPHY: Oppenheimer

JEFFREY WRIGHT: American Fiction

MY CHOICE:  I’ve been a fan of Jeffery Wright ever since I saw him in Bring in Da’ Noise, Bring in Da’ Funk.  He’s a true master thespian and his shot at an Oscar is long overdue.

WHO WILL WIN:  Both Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy have Golden Globes and while yes, it’s a crying shame that Giamatti has never been nominated until now (did the Academy even see the 2010 masterpiece Barney’s Version?), and while some may think it’s a long overdue honor that he deserves, I still think Cillian Murphy has the edge.

OVERLOOKED:  Coleman Domingo for The Color Purple.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: NOMINEES

ANNETTE BENING: Nyad

LILY GLADSTONE: Killers of the Flower Moon

SANDRA HÜLLER: Anatomy of a Fall

CAREY MULLIGAN: Maestro

EMMA STONE: Poor Things

MY CHOICE:  Poor Things may be my favorite film this year and Emma Stone’s performance was certainly a major factor.  Still, Lily Gladstone undeniably gave a star-making, breakout performance in Killers of the Flower Moon and I hope she’ll win.

WHO WILL WIN:  I think Ms. Gladstone is a lock.

OVERLOOKED:  It may have been perfect type casting, but typecasting doesn’t matter if the actor doesn’t deliver.  Yes, Margot Robbie should have been nominated for Barbie.  Also Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple.


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: NOMINEES

STERLING K. BROWN: American Fiction

ROBERT DE NIRO: Killers of the Flower Moon

ROBERT DOWNEY JR.: Oppenheimer

RYAN GOSLING: Barbie

MARK RUFFALO: Poor Things

MY CHOICE:  Sterling K. Brown as the substance abusing yet wise gay brother in American Fiction.

WHO WILL WIN:  This is a tough one.  Still, I’m predicting an Oppenheimer fest, so Robert Downey Jr. is who I predict.

OVERLOOKED:  Willem Dafoe in Poor Things.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE – NOMINEES

EMILY BLUNT: Oppenheimer

DANIELLE BROOKS: The Color Purple

AMERICA FERRERA: Barbie

JODIE FOSTER: Nyad

DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH: The Holdovers

MY CHOISE:  In a film as campy as Barbie, America Ferrera kind of grounded the film.  She’d get my vote.

WHO WILL WIN:  Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers.

OVERLOOKED:  Kathryn Hunter in Poor Things.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM – NOMINEES

THE BOY AND THE HERON: Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki

ELEMENTAL: Peter Sohn and Denise Ream

NIMONA: Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary

ROBOT DREAMS: Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE: Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal

MY CHOICE:  I’ve only seen The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.  I vote for Spider-Man if for no other reason than it has one of the most original visual styles of any animated film I’ve seen in a long time.

WHAT WILL WIN:  I think The Boy and the Heron has the edge.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY) – NOMINEES

AMERICAN FICTION: Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson

BARBIE: Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach

OPPENHEIMER: Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan

POOR THINGS: Screenplay by Tony McNamara

THE ZONE OF INTEREST: Written by Jonathan Glazer

MY CHOICE:  American Fiction.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Oppenheimer.

OVERLOOKED:  Killers of the Flower Moon.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) – NOMINEES

ANATOMY OF A FALL: Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

THE HOLDOVERS: Written by David Hemingson

MAESTRO: Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer

MAY DECEMBER: Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik

PAST LIVES: Written by Celine Song

MY CHOICE:  May December.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Maestro.

OVERLOOKED. Bottoms.

CINEMATOGRAPHY – NOMINEES

EL CONDE: Edward Lachman

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Rodrigo Prieto

MAESTRO: Matthew Libatique

OPPENHEIMER: Hoyte van Hoytema

POOR THINGS: Robbie Ryan

MY CHOICE:  Killers of the Flower Moon.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Oppenheimer.

COSTUME DESIGN – NOMINEES

BARBIE: Jacqueline Durran

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Jacqueline West

NAPOLEON: Janty Yates and Dave Crossman

OPPENHEIMER: Ellen Mirojnick

POOR THINGS: Holly Waddington

MY CHOICE:  Poor Things.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Barbie.

FILM EDITING – NOMINEES

ANATOMY OF A FALL: Laurent Sénéchal

THE HOLDOVERS: Kevin Tent

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Thelma Schoonmaker

OPPENHEIMER: Jennifer Lame

POOR THINGS: Yorgos Mavropsaridis

MY CHOICE:  I thought Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer were both too damn long.  By virtue of being my favorite film of the year, I vote for Poor Things.

WHO WILL WIN:  Oppenheimer.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING – NOMINEES

GOLDA: Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue

MAESTRO: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell

OPPENHEIMER: Luisa Abel

POOR THINGS: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston

SOCIETY OF THE SNOW: Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé

MY CHOICE:  Poor Things.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Poor Things.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) – NOMINEES

AMERICAN FICTION: Laura Karpman

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY: John Williams

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Robbie Robertson

OPPENHEIMER: Ludwig Göransson

POOR THINGS: Jerskin Fendrix

MY CHOICE:  American Fiction.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Oppenheimer.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG) – NOMINEES

THE FIRE INSIDE from Flamin’ Hot; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

I’M JUST KEN from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt

IT NEVER WENT AWAY

from American Symphony; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson

WAHZHAZHE (A SONG FOR MY PEOPLE) from Killers of the Flower Moon; Music and Lyric by Scott George

WHAT WAS I MADE FOR? from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

MY CHOICE: “IT NEVER WENT AWAY” from American Symphony.

WHAT WILL WIN:  “WAHZHAZHE” from Killers of the Flower Moon.

PRODUCTION DESIGN – NOMINEES

BARBIE: Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON: Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis

NAPOLEON: Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff

OPPENHEIMER: Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman

POOR THINGS: Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek

MY CHOICE:  Poor Things.

WHAT WILL WIN: Barbie.

SOUND – NOMINEES

THE CREATOR: Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

MAESTRO: Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE: Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

OPPENHEIMER: Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell

THE ZONE OF INTEREST: Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

MY CHOICE:  Zone of Interest.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Oppenhimer.

VISUAL EFFECTS – NOMINEES:

THE CREATOR: Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould

GODZILLA MINUS ONE: Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3: Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE: Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

NAPOLEON: Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

MY CHOICE:  The Creator.

WHAT WILL WIN: Mission Impossible.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM – NOMINEES

BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT: Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek

THE ETERNAL MEMORY

FOUR DAUGHTERS: Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha

TO KILL A TIGER: Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim

20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL: Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath

MY CHOICE:  Sadly, I didn’t see any of these so I have no idea.

WHAT WILL WIN:  N/A.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM – NOMINEES

THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING: Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic

THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK: John Hoffman and Christine Turner

ISLAND IN BETWEEN: S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien

THE LAST REPAIR SHOP: Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

NǍI NAI & WÀI PÓ: Sean Wang and Sam Davis

MY CHOICE:  N/A.

WHAT WILL WIN:  I didn’t see any of them so I really don’t know but I’ll guess that The ABC’s of Book Banning sounds like pretty good Oscar bait.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM – NOMINEES

IO CAPITANO: Italy

PERFECT DAYS: Japan

SOCIETY OF THE SNOW: Spain

THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE: Germany

THE ZONE OF INTEREST: United Kingdom

MY CHOICE:  I’ve only seen Zone of Interest which I found very disappointing.  I’ll abstain.

WHAT WILL WIN:  Given that it also got a Best Picture nod, I think Zone of Interest has an edge.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM – NOMINEES

LETTER TO A PIG: Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter

NINETY-FIVE SENSES: Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess

OUR UNIFORM: Yegane Moghaddam

PACHYDERME: Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

WAR IS OVER! INSPIRED BY THE MUSIC OF JOHN & YOKO: Dave Mullins and Brad Booker

MY CHOICE:  N/A.

WHAT WILL WIN: N/A.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM – NOMINEES

THE AFTER: Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham

INVINCIBLE: Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron

KNIGHT OF FORTUNE: Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk

RED, WHITE AND BLUE: Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane

THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR: Wes Anderson and Steven Rales

MY CHOICE:  N/A.

WHAT WILL WIN:  N/A.

THE 25 MOST INTERESTING PRESIDENTIAL ALSO RANS

SHIRLEY CHISHOLM

THE 25 MOST INTERESTING PRESIDENTIAL ALSO RANS

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